We are continuing to monitor the tropics for possible tropical cyclone development in the northwestern Caribbean Sea or southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week or weekend. Increasing confidence that a tropical cyclone will develop, though many uncertainties in the forecast track and intensity of the potential system remain.
An area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days becoming a tropical cyclone later this week or this weekend as it moves towards the Yucatan Peninsula. It will then move into the South-Central Gulf of Mexico and then track WNW or NNW through the Gulf of Mexico.
- Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
- Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent
It is still too early to provide specifics on a track or intensity forecast at this time as uncertainty is especially high given the system has yet to develop. It is also too early to provide detailed impacts to SE Texas as that will be determined by the track, but possible impacts starting as early as this weekend include strong rip currents and elevated seas. If the system develops and tracks towards our area, then we may expect additional impacts as early as Monday.