Bottom Line
Confidence is increasing that the disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea will become a tropical depression or storm later today. This system could bring storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Louisiana and Texas early next week. High winds and seas will also be possible across the marine areas. Exactly where these impacts will occur will depend strongly on track and this remains highly uncertain since the system has yet to form. All should closely monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. Stay tuned!
Overview
The NHC has increased the probability that the disturbance in the western Caribbean will become a tropical depression or storm later today or tonight. Once it forms, it will move either WNW or NNW and enter the Gulf of Mexico by the start of the weekend. It will then continue to track through the Gulf through the weekend potentially making landfall in Louisiana or Texas. Conditions are favorable for further strengthening of the system as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico, likely becoming a hurricane. Wherever the system makes landfall, it has the potential to bring dangerous storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rainfall. Local impacts that we are more certain of, regardless of track, include strong rip currents this weekend and increasing wave heights (8 to 10 feet in our offshore waters Sunday into Monday).
- Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…90%
- Formation chance through 5 days…high…90%
Stay tuned for updates as the forecast track is uncertain and could change. Now is the time to review your hurricane plans and prepare.
