Bottom Line
We are continuing to monitor the tropics for possible tropical cyclone development in the northwestern Caribbean Sea or southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week or weekend. This system could bring storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Louisiana and Texas early next week. High winds and seas will also be possible across the marine areas. Exactly where these impacts will occur will depend strongly on track and this remains highly uncertain since the system has yet to form. All should closely monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. Stay tuned!
Overview
An area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days becoming a tropical cyclone later this week or this weekend as it moves towards the Yucatan Peninsula. It will then move into the South-Central Gulf of Mexico and then track WNW or NNW through the Gulf of Mexico, likely toward the Texas or Louisiana coasts. The cyclone has the potential to become a hurricane as it crosses the warm waters of the Gulf.
- Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
- Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent
Stay tuned for updates as the forecast track is uncertain and could change. Now is the time to review your hurricane plans and prepare.
