Weather News

Bottom Line

Confidence is increasing that the disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea will become a tropical depression or storm later today. This system could bring storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Louisiana and Texas early next week. High winds and seas will also be possible across the marine areas. Exactly where these impacts will occur will depend strongly on track and this remains highly uncertain since the system has yet to form. All should closely monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. Stay tuned!

Overview

The NHC has increased the probability that the disturbance in the western Caribbean will become a tropical depression or storm later today or tonight. Once it forms, it will move either WNW or NNW and enter the Gulf of Mexico by the start of the weekend. It will then continue to track through the Gulf through the weekend potentially making landfall in Louisiana or Texas. Conditions are favorable for further strengthening of the system as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico, likely becoming a hurricane. Wherever the system makes landfall, it has the potential to bring dangerous storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rainfall. Local impacts that we are more certain of, regardless of track, include strong rip currents this weekend and increasing wave heights (8 to 10 feet in our offshore waters Sunday into Monday).

• Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…90%
• Formation chance through 5 days…high…90%

Stay tuned for updates as the forecast track is uncertain and could change. Now is the time to review your hurricane plans and prepare.

Bottom Line

We are continuing to monitor the tropics for possible tropical cyclone development in the northwestern Caribbean Sea or southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week or weekend. This system could bring storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Louisiana and Texas early next week. High winds and seas will also be possible across the marine areas. Exactly where these impacts will occur will depend strongly on track and this remains highly uncertain since the system has yet to form. All should closely monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. Stay tuned!

Overview

An area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days becoming a tropical cyclone later this week or this weekend as it moves towards the Yucatan Peninsula. It will then move into the South-Central Gulf of Mexico and then track WNW or NNW through the Gulf of Mexico, likely toward the Texas or Louisiana coasts. The cyclone has the potential to become a hurricane as it crosses the warm waters of the Gulf.

• Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
• Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent

Stay tuned for updates as the forecast track is uncertain and could change. Now is the time to review your hurricane plans and prepare.

Bottom Line

We are continuing to monitor the tropics for possible tropical cyclone development in the northwestern Caribbean Sea or southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week or weekend. Increasing confidence that a tropical cyclone will develop, though many uncertainties in the forecast track and intensity of the potential system remain.

Overview

An area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days becoming a tropical cyclone later this week or this weekend as it moves towards the Yucatan Peninsula. It will then move into the South-Central Gulf of Mexico and then track WNW or NNW through the Gulf of Mexico.

• Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
• Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent

It is still too early to provide specifics on a track or intensity forecast at this time as uncertainty is especially high given the system has yet to develop.  It is also too early to provide detailed impacts to SE Texas as that will be determined by the track, but possible impacts starting as early as this weekend include strong rip currents and elevated seas. If the system develops and tracks towards our area, then we may expect additional impacts as early as Monday.

A . Heat index values this afternoon will top out in the 106-110 degree range. Continue to practice heat safety: take breaks, drink plenty of water, and look before you lock your vehicle.